Adnan Melki, a policy analyst and developer, examines a fundamental question: Would the departure of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lead to a real change in Israel’s hostile policy toward Lebanon?
Melki argues that the arrival of centrist forces, or any other political alternative, would not necessarily mean that Israel’s approach toward Lebanon would become less violent.
He warns against relying on goodwill or assuming that a change in leadership in Tel Aviv would automatically lead to a different policy toward Lebanon.
According to Melki, Netanyahu’s domestic popularity is largely linked to the political hardline approach he has adopted.
At the same time, Israeli election campaigns have witnessed intense competition, including accusations of betrayal and claims that centrist parties are seeking alliances with Arab parties.
Melki also points to warnings from a former Israeli president about the dangers of internal division and confrontation within Israel.
He then turns to history to support his argument.
According to Melki, many of the major wars and military invasions against Lebanon were carried out under governments led by the Israeli Labor Party, which is generally associated with the centre and left.
He cites the 1982 invasion of Lebanon and military operations such as Operation Grapes of Wrath as examples.
These events, he argues, took place under governments that were not led by Israel’s far-right forces.
For Melki, this historical record suggests that Israel’s military approach toward Lebanon cannot be attributed solely to Netanyahu or the political right.
Instead, he argues that hostility toward Lebanon has been a broader and more established feature of Israeli policy, regardless of which political figures are in power.
