Political analyst Adnan Melki said the Flydubai incident recalls similar events from history. He pointed in particular to the attempted assassination of the Israeli ambassador in London on June 3, 1982. Just days later, on June 6, Israel invaded Lebanon.
Melki noted that accusations were falsely aimed at the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat at the time. Even so, that pretext led to major consequences. It ended with the occupation of Beirut, the first Arab capital to fall.
So far, no clear official reports explain the nature or circumstances of the latest incident. However, Melki said political readings of past experience suggest Israel could exploit any event to carry out plans prepared in advance.
Politically, Melki said this comes at a very delicate moment inside Israel. Elections are scheduled for October 27. Estimates suggest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces great difficulty securing a Knesset majority to form the next government. This is a serious political danger, and Netanyahu is seeking to avoid it by changing certain rules during this period.
With time short, Melki said fears are growing that Netanyahu may turn to other options. The most prominent is trying to postpone the elections under the pretext of a new security situation. This comes amid highly sensitive conditions, as Israel is opening multiple fronts in the West Bank, Gaza, Iran, Lebanon and Yemen.
Melki concluded that the question remains where escalation might occur. Its aim, he suggested, would be to push through a postponement agenda and serve Netanyahu’s regional plans. The coming days will clarify this.
