This report examines the historical and geopolitical factors behind the renewed U.S. focus on Cuba under President Donald Trump, as well as the central role played by Secretary of State Marco Rubio in shaping Washington’s policy toward the island.
The roots of the U.S.-Cuba confrontation date back to 1898, when Washington intervened in Cuba’s struggle for independence from Spain.
The United States subsequently secured constitutional arrangements that allowed it to intervene militarily on the island and established its presence at Guantánamo, home to the well-known U.S. naval base and prison.
When Fidel Castro came to power in 1959 and Cuba became a socialist state, relations with Washington entered a dangerous new phase.
Tensions reached their peak in 1962, during the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the Soviet Union deployed nuclear missiles in Cuba, just hundreds of kilometers from the U.S. coast.
The crisis was followed by decades of U.S. sanctions and economic restrictions aimed at weakening the Cuban government and pressuring it to change course.
Successive U.S. presidents have pursued this objective, but the Cuban government has remained in power.
Today, Marco Rubio is one of the most prominent figures shaping Washington’s policy toward Cuba.
The U.S. Secretary of State is of Cuban descent, and his family’s experience with the Castro government has been an important factor in his longstanding opposition to Havana.
His position on Cuba therefore combines a personal and historical connection with broader U.S. foreign-policy objectives.
The issue also has a wider geopolitical dimension, involving several countries that are strategic rivals of Washington.
The disruption of subsidized Venezuelan oil supplies has contributed to a severe energy crisis in Cuba, which has historically relied heavily on Venezuelan oil.
At the same time, Cuba has strengthened its relations with Iran, including through agreements in the medical and energy sectors. Both countries have faced extensive U.S. sanctions.
China has also become an important economic partner for Havana. It reportedly accounts for around 22% of Cuba’s imports and has supported the island’s energy infrastructure.
In 2025, China was involved in the construction of dozens of solar-power facilities aimed at helping Cuba address its energy shortages and broader economic difficulties.
These overlapping relationships help explain why Cuba has become more than a bilateral issue between Washington and Havana.
The island is increasingly part of a broader geopolitical contest involving the United States, China, Iran and Venezuela, while the Trump administration continues to intensify pressure on the Cuban government.
